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  • Projections
    In-house Bayesian model · career prior + aging × stuff/discipline signals
  • Plate Discipline
    Decision+ · chase / passive cost · K% · BB%
  • Command & Stuff
    Pitching+ · Stuff+ · Command+ · meatball rate
  • Pitcher Stuff Lab
    In-zone whiff · xwOBAcon · tunnel · deception · count predictability
  • Stuff Model (diag)
    From-scratch XGBoost training runs, feature importance, pitcher grades
  • Expected Points
    Luck-neutral fantasy points · xSLG / xwOBA · ΔPts
  • Hitter Frontier
    Power × discipline tradeoff · Pareto-frontier hitters
  • Pitcher Frontier
    Process × contact-suppression · pound the zone vs limit damage
  • Hitter Vulnerabilities
    Biggest pitch-trait strengths & weaknesses · vs league or vs own
  • AAA Hitters
    Triple-A bats · xwOBA · contact quality · discipline · frontier
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Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

1B·TOR
Compare
Compare
PA
682
H
159
HR
26
AVG
.264
xwOBA
.383
PPG
2.61
Career Seasons
YrGPAAVGOBPSLGISOxwOBAK%BB%K-BB%HRSBPtsPPGxPPG
202666274.278.374.363.085.36310.6%11.7%-1.1%351622.45—
2025178680.292
2023 MLB Percentiles

Hitting Profile

Expected Results
xwOBA
89
.383
xBA
92
.295
xSLG
.383
.467
.175
.390
13.8%
11.9%
1.9%
23
6
558
3.13
—
2024164697.323.398.544.221.42013.8%10.3%3.5%3025323.24—
2023165682.264.347.444.180.38314.7%9.8%4.9%2654302.61—
2022174706.274.340.480.206.35816.4%8.2%8.2%3294702.70—
2021169698.311.402.601.290.42715.8%12.3%3.5%4846023.56—
202063243.262.329.462.200.34015.6%8.2%7.4%911552.46—
2019123514.272.340.433.161.33417.7%8.9%8.8%1502792.27—
83
.509
Quality of Contact
Avg EV
87
92.1
Median EV
77
94.3
90th % EV
95
109.1
Barrel %
67
11.1
Hard-Hit %
84
49.2
Sweet-Spot %
34
34.4
Bat Speed
Avg
91
74.2
Median
86
74.7
90th %
95
80.8
Plate Discipline
Chase %
41
28.8
Whiff %
54
21.3
K %
87
14.7
BB %
59
9.8
Swing Decisions

Plate Discipline · Decision+

Expected-run-value of every swing-or-take decision, against a league-average batter’s optimum. 100 = avg · 110 = 1 SD better.

Decision+
102
≈ 57th pctl
Chase cost
-46.9r
454 swings @ bad pitch
Passive cost
-15.6r
269 takes @ hittable pitch
Swing rate
50.2%
2,524 pitches seen
Runs per 100
-2.48
lg avg -2.54
Count
View
43+33%9323+0%7+17%6+36%11-7%15+22%37+41%22+17%125+11%9-29%28-26%50-18%60-16%38+67%24+50%8+50%18+7%43-29%52-19%67-26%58+34%29+38%13+26%27+26%42+39%36+15%41+15%27+11%93+6%16+15%20+0%13+18%11331CATCHER'S VIEW
Judgment — swing% vs optimal
−35%−15%0+15%+35%
  • Red cells — swings more than an optimal batter would here (chasing).
  • Blue cells — swings less than optimal (too passive).
  • Number in cell: swing%-delta vs optimal. Top-right: pitches seen.
Total pitches shown: 1,000