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  • Projections
    In-house Bayesian model · career prior + aging × stuff/discipline signals
  • Plate Discipline
    Decision+ · chase / passive cost · K% · BB%
  • Command & Stuff
    Pitching+ · Stuff+ · Command+ · meatball rate
  • Pitcher Stuff Lab
    In-zone whiff · xwOBAcon · tunnel · deception · count predictability
  • Stuff Model (diag)
    From-scratch XGBoost training runs, feature importance, pitcher grades
  • Expected Points
    Luck-neutral fantasy points · xSLG / xwOBA · ΔPts
  • Hitter Frontier
    Power × discipline tradeoff · Pareto-frontier hitters
  • Pitcher Frontier
    Process × contact-suppression · pound the zone vs limit damage
  • Hitter Vulnerabilities
    Biggest pitch-trait strengths & weaknesses · vs league or vs own
  • AAA Hitters
    Triple-A bats · xwOBA · contact quality · discipline · frontier
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Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

1B·TOR
Compare
Compare
PA
680
H
172
HR
23
AVG
.292
xwOBA
.390
PPG
3.13
Career Seasons
YrGPAAVGOBPSLGISOxwOBAK%BB%K-BB%HRSBPtsPPGxPPG
202666274.278.374.363.085.36310.6%11.7%-1.1%351622.45—
2025178680.292
2025 MLB Percentiles

Hitting Profile

Expected Results
xwOBA
94
.390
xBA
99
.302
xSLG
.383
.467
.175
.390
13.8%
11.9%
1.9%
23
6
558
3.13
—
2024164697.323.398.544.221.42013.8%10.3%3.5%3025323.24—
2023165682.264.347.444.180.38314.7%9.8%4.9%2654302.61—
2022174706.274.340.480.206.35816.4%8.2%8.2%3294702.70—
2021169698.311.402.601.290.42715.8%12.3%3.5%4846023.56—
202063243.262.329.462.200.34015.6%8.2%7.4%911552.46—
2019123514.272.340.433.161.33417.7%8.9%8.8%1502792.27—
88
.509
Quality of Contact
Avg EV
84
92.0
Median EV
88
95.4
90th % EV
97
110.3
Barrel %
71
12.2
Hard-Hit %
88
50.7
Sweet-Spot %
28
34.7
Bat Speed
Avg
97
75.2
Median
96
76.6
90th %
96
81.4
Plate Discipline
Chase %
86
21.5
Whiff %
67
19.9
K %
88
13.8
BB %
82
11.9
Swing Decisions

Plate Discipline · Decision+

Expected-run-value of every swing-or-take decision, against a league-average batter’s optimum. 100 = avg · 110 = 1 SD better.

Decision+
107
≈ 77th pctl
Chase cost
-34.0r
367 swings @ bad pitch
Passive cost
-23.4r
424 takes @ hittable pitch
Swing rate
42.4%
2,547 pitches seen
Runs per 100
-2.25
lg avg -2.53
Count
View
1+14%7+14%75+0%842+0%8+13%16+22%18+39%28+31%16+13%16+10%10+17%12-9%47-40%53-22%59-18%50+0%15+0%9+20%20-12%64-32%69-40%60-34%41+27%22+13%8+14%22+18%51+16%45+12%34-22%23+7%143+8%12+10%10+17%6+7%1445CATCHER'S VIEW
Judgment — swing% vs optimal
−35%−15%0+15%+35%
  • Red cells — swings more than an optimal batter would here (chasing).
  • Blue cells — swings less than optimal (too passive).
  • Number in cell: swing%-delta vs optimal. Top-right: pitches seen.
Total pitches shown: 1,000