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  • Projections
    In-house Bayesian model · career prior + aging × stuff/discipline signals
  • Plate Discipline
    Decision+ · chase / passive cost · K% · BB%
  • Command & Stuff
    Pitching+ · Stuff+ · Command+ · meatball rate
  • Pitcher Stuff Lab
    In-zone whiff · xwOBAcon · tunnel · deception · count predictability
  • Stuff Model (diag)
    From-scratch XGBoost training runs, feature importance, pitcher grades
  • Expected Points
    Luck-neutral fantasy points · xSLG / xwOBA · ΔPts
  • Hitter Frontier
    Power × discipline tradeoff · Pareto-frontier hitters
  • Pitcher Frontier
    Process × contact-suppression · pound the zone vs limit damage
  • Hitter Vulnerabilities
    Biggest pitch-trait strengths & weaknesses · vs league or vs own
  • AAA Hitters
    Triple-A bats · xwOBA · contact quality · discipline · frontier
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Position cohort

Hitting value vs. 1B peers

Rank #1 of 40

Each bar is one 1B, ordered left-to-right by Value (blended). Center dot is VORP; whiskers span V⁻ → V⁺. This player is highlighted in blue.

-500+50+100Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. · #1
V⁻ 55VORP 81V⁺ 137
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

1B·TOR
Compare
Compare
PA
289
H
68
HR
3
AVG
.275
xwOBA
.360
PPG
2.49
Career Seasons
YrGPAAVGOBPSLGISOxwOBAK%BB%K-BB%HRSBPtsPPGxPPG
Proj100432.295.383.491.196.38612.8%11.7%1.1%1743063.06—
202668289.275
2026 MLB Percentiles

Hitting Profile

Expected Results
xwOBA
68
.360
xBA
93
.297
xSLG
.372
.360
.085
.360
10.4%
11.8%
-1.4%
3
5
169
2.49
—
2025178680.292.383.467.175.39013.8%11.9%1.9%2365583.13—
2024164697.323.398.544.221.42013.8%10.3%3.5%3025323.24—
2023165682.264.347.444.180.38314.7%9.8%4.9%2654302.61—
2022174706.274.340.480.206.35816.4%8.2%8.2%3294702.70—
2021169698.311.402.601.290.42715.8%12.3%3.5%4846023.56—
202063243.262.329.462.200.34015.6%8.2%7.4%911552.46—
2019123514.272.340.433.161.33417.7%8.9%8.8%1502792.27—
48
.417
Quality of Contact
Avg EV
66
90.4
Median EV
38
91.7
90th % EV
95
110.7
Barrel %
24
6.4
Hard-Hit %
57
44.5
Sweet-Spot %
9
30.5
Bat Speed
Avg
93
74.8
Median
90
75.6
90th %
97
82.0
Plate Discipline
Chase %
34
31.8
Whiff %
72
17.5
K %
94
10.4
BB %
72
11.8
Swing Decisions

Plate Discipline · Decision+

Expected-run-value of every swing-or-take decision, against a league-average batter’s optimum. 100 = avg · 110 = 1 SD better.

Decision+
113
≈ 90th pctl
Chase cost
-4.8r
58 swings @ bad pitch
Passive cost
-1.7r
41 takes @ hittable pitch
Swing rate
46.5%
327 pitches seen
Runs per 100
-1.99
lg avg -2.53
Count
View
122135+17%6+30%105232-8%13-27%15-29%14+15%13+57%73+14%7+12%25-30%23-24%25-5%194+14%7+14%7+30%10+21%14+9%11+33%634344311CATCHER'S VIEW
Judgment — swing% vs optimal
−35%−15%0+15%+35%
  • Red cells — swings more than an optimal batter would here (chasing).
  • Blue cells — swings less than optimal (too passive).
  • Number in cell: swing%-delta vs optimal. Top-right: pitches seen.
Total pitches shown: 327