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  • Projections
    In-house Bayesian model · career prior + aging × stuff/discipline signals
  • Plate Discipline
    Decision+ · chase / passive cost · K% · BB%
  • Command & Stuff
    Pitching+ · Stuff+ · Command+ · meatball rate
  • Pitcher Stuff Lab
    In-zone whiff · xwOBAcon · tunnel · deception · count predictability
  • Stuff Model (diag)
    From-scratch XGBoost training runs, feature importance, pitcher grades
  • Expected Points
    Luck-neutral fantasy points · xSLG / xwOBA · ΔPts
  • Hitter Frontier
    Power × discipline tradeoff · Pareto-frontier hitters
  • Pitcher Frontier
    Process × contact-suppression · pound the zone vs limit damage
  • Hitter Vulnerabilities
    Biggest pitch-trait strengths & weaknesses · vs league or vs own
  • AAA Hitters
    Triple-A bats · xwOBA · contact quality · discipline · frontier
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Position cohort

Pitching value vs. SP peers

Rank #120 of 165

Each bar is one SP, ordered left-to-right by Value (blended). Center dot is VORP; whiskers span V⁻ → V⁺. This player is highlighted in blue.

0+50+100+150Walker Buehler
Walker Buehler · #60
V⁻ —VORP -37V⁺ —
Walker Buehler

Walker Buehler

SP·SDP
Compare
Compare
BF
266
K %
19.9%
BB %
8.3%
xwOBA
.341
PTS
96
PPG
7.38
Career Seasons
YrGGSIPWLSVHLDERAFIPK%BB%K-BB%xwOBABABIPLOB%GB%PtsPPG
Proj181369.045004.664.5318.7%9.3%9.4%————894.95
2026 MLB Percentiles

Pitching Profile

Arsenal
FB Velo
30
92.5
FB Spin
39
2231
Extension
2026
13
13
62.3
3
3
0
0
4.33
3.44
19.9%
8.3%
11.6%
.341
.315
70.0%
47.3%
96
7.38
20252624126.0107004.935.6216.3%10.6%5.7%.356.28575.4%42.5%1566.00
2024201990.327105.085.1418.6%8.1%10.5%.340.30770.6%45.9%924.60
2022141474.764004.344.2021.2%6.2%15.0%.325.30274.8%48.2%1399.93
20213838231.0167002.963.4125.9%6.4%19.5%.274.26178.6%46.2%57815.21
2020131361.730002.773.5428.6%7.5%21.1%.295.24180.5%36.6%17813.69
20193332196.0154003.122.8429.2%5.0%24.2%.278.28772.1%43.1%54616.55
20182827161.086002.802.9527.8%6.8%21.0%.261.24776.6%50.4%42115.04
20179010.310019.587.4527.3%18.2%9.1%.356.37063.8%66.7%50.56
59
6.58
Results
xwOBA
26
.341
Barrel %
53
8.0
Hard-Hit %
42
41.0
K %
39
19.9
BB %
45
8.3
Chase %
11
26.5
Whiff %
9
17.1
Command & Stuff

Pitching+

Expected run-value conceded per pitch against a rational hitter, standardized against the season. 100 = avg · 110 = 1 SD better.

Pitching+
94
≈ 29th pctl
Stuff+
97
if they swing
Command+
99
out-of-zone take RV
Strike quality+
92
RV of in-zone pitches
Crushable pitches
12.0%
44 meatballs
Putaway counts (0-2, 1-2)
0.044
RV per pitch · league 0.042
+0.002 worse than avg · 110 pitches
Lower RV = more wasted whiff chances when they choose not to put hitters away.
Hitter's counts (3-0, 3-1, 2-0)
0.059
RV per pitch · league 0.029
+0.029 worse than avg · 22 pitches
How often they groove get-me-overs vs. nibble safely.
Based on 366 pitches. RV = Statcast delta_run_exp; lower = better for the pitcher.
Pitch Arsenal
PitchUsageVeloSpinIVBHBExtWhiff%Zone%CSW%Chase%PutAway%xwOBA
CutterFC
20.8%89.82336+10.0-5.16.6219.2%41.7%25.0%28.6%22.2%0.262
Knuckle CurveKC
18.0%77.2

2026 Movement Profile (Induced Break)

MLB Avg.
6"12"18"24"24"24"24"1B ◀ MOVES TOWARD ▶ 3B▲MORERISE▼MOREDROPARMANGLE46°100 PITCHSAMPLE
FCKCFFCHSLSIST
Usage21%18%16%15%13%10%7%
MPH89.877.293.988.786.693.782.8
RHP Avg89.883.095.086.986.794.383.3
2453
-14.2
-11.7
6.71
37.5%
38.5%
32.7%
53.1%
28.0%
0.368
4-Seam FastballFF
16.3%93.92160+16.8+5.36.6610.0%51.1%40.4%13.0%7.7%0.439
ChangeupCH
14.5%88.71491+6.0+12.86.6516.7%38.1%19.0%26.9%7.1%0.422
SliderSL
12.8%86.62462+3.0-8.56.7127.3%45.9%32.4%45.0%33.3%0.239
SinkerSI
10.4%93.72012+12.9+14.06.660.0%66.7%40.0%10.0%0.0%0.299
SweeperST
7.3%82.82599+5.6-13.36.6536.4%19.0%23.8%47.1%25.0%0.087

2026 Swing-Out Snapshot

Commit at the decision point, then fast-forward 150ms. Where is each pitch when your bat crosses the zone? Two views of the same moment — catcher-facing and from the side.

Catcher View
horizontal × vertical
0.5′1′1.5′2′2.5′3′DECISIONPOINTFF · 15″SI · 17″FC · 18″ST · 21″CH · 20″SL · 22″KC · 24″arm side ◀ ▶ glove sidedrops ◀ ▶ rises
Side View
depth × vertical
1′2′3′4′5′6′-3′0′5′10′15′20′23′FF · 27″SI · 27″FC · 36″ST · 55″CH · 40″SL · 45″KC · 69″DECISION POINTPLATEfeet to plate
swing time150 ms

Each pitch is launched from a shared decision point (4.33′ height) and advanced using its own Statcast kinematics (release velocity + constant acceleration, so gravity, drag, and Magnus are all in the curve). RHP.

2026 Tunneling

Where pitches are when the hitter commits — and where they end up. Tighter cluster on the left = more deceptive arsenal.

At Decision
23 ft out · ~280ms before arrival
FCKCFFCHSLSIST-2′-1′0′1′2′1′2′3′4′1B ◀ catcher view ▶ 3B
At the Plate
Where they actually cross
FCKCFFCHSLSIST-2′-1′0′1′2′1′2′3′4′1B ◀ catcher view ▶ 3B
FCKCFFCHSLSIST

Decision point computed from Statcast kinematics (vx0/vy0/vz0, ax/ay/az) by projecting each pitch back to y = 23 ft. Coordinates in catcher’s view: 1B on the left, 3B on the right. RHP.