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  • Projections
    In-house Bayesian model · career prior + aging × stuff/discipline signals
  • Plate Discipline
    Decision+ · chase / passive cost · K% · BB%
  • Command & Stuff
    Pitching+ · Stuff+ · Command+ · meatball rate
  • Pitcher Stuff Lab
    In-zone whiff · xwOBAcon · tunnel · deception · count predictability
  • Stuff Model (diag)
    From-scratch XGBoost training runs, feature importance, pitcher grades
  • Expected Points
    Luck-neutral fantasy points · xSLG / xwOBA · ΔPts
  • Hitter Frontier
    Power × discipline tradeoff · Pareto-frontier hitters
  • Pitcher Frontier
    Process × contact-suppression · pound the zone vs limit damage
  • Hitter Vulnerabilities
    Biggest pitch-trait strengths & weaknesses · vs league or vs own
  • AAA Hitters
    Triple-A bats · xwOBA · contact quality · discipline · frontier
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Position cohort

Hitting value vs. C peers

Rank #8 of 66

Each bar is one C, ordered left-to-right by Value (blended). Center dot is VORP; whiskers span V⁻ → V⁺. This player is highlighted in blue.

-300-200-1000+100Will Smith
Will Smith · #8
V⁻ 7VORP -160V⁺ 52
Will Smith

Will Smith

C·LAD
Compare
Compare
PA
201
H
43
HR
6
AVG
.249
xwOBA
.385
PPG
1.98
Career Seasons
YrGPAAVGOBPSLGISOxwOBAK%BB%K-BB%HRSBPtsPPGxPPG
Proj69272.261.356.461.200.36318.6%11.6%7.0%1111672.43—
202652201.249
2026 MLB Percentiles

Hitting Profile

201 PA — below qualified cutoff. Percentiles vs. qualified pool (faded).

Expected Results
xwOBA
88
.385
xBA
75
.276
.343
.382
.133
.385
16.9%
11.4%
5.5%
6
0
103
1.98
—
2025128429.292.399.492.200.37520.7%13.8%6.9%1723242.53—
2024148547.246.330.430.184.34219.2%9.3%9.9%2023572.41—
2023133554.261.367.438.177.35116.1%11.4%4.7%1943702.78—
2022151578.260.345.465.205.36116.6%9.7%6.9%2413882.57—
2021147501.258.373.495.237.36620.2%11.6%8.6%2533872.63—
202055137.289.404.579.290.40716.1%14.6%1.5%801432.60—
201960196.253.342.571.318.32326.5%9.2%17.3%1521392.32—
xSLG
82
.494
Quality of Contact
Avg EV
54
90.0
Median EV
23
89.9
90th % EV
47
104.8
Barrel %
79
13.4
Hard-Hit %
35
39.4
Sweet-Spot %
96
45.1
Bat Speed
Avg
26
68.5
Median
16
69.0
90th %
13
73.1
Plate Discipline
Chase %
93
21.3
Whiff %
88
14.1
K %
72
16.9
BB %
70
11.4
Swing Decisions

Plate Discipline · Decision+

Expected-run-value of every swing-or-take decision, against a league-average batter’s optimum. 100 = avg · 110 = 1 SD better.

Decision+
108
≈ 79th pctl
Chase cost
-4.6r
42 swings @ bad pitch
Passive cost
-3.4r
63 takes @ hittable pitch
Swing rate
40.2%
363 pitches seen
Runs per 100
-2.19
lg avg -2.53
Count
View
321155+50%12+13%8+0%71+14%7-57%14-11%9-12%32-29%17+27%112+17%6-20%25-46%24-38%26-13%15+25%12+0%6+15%13+18%11+0%32+17%6+14%7232+0%62212CATCHER'S VIEW
Judgment — swing% vs optimal
−35%−15%0+15%+35%
  • Red cells — swings more than an optimal batter would here (chasing).
  • Blue cells — swings less than optimal (too passive).
  • Number in cell: swing%-delta vs optimal. Top-right: pitches seen.
Total pitches shown: 363