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  • Projections
    In-house Bayesian model · career prior + aging × stuff/discipline signals
  • Plate Discipline
    Decision+ · chase / passive cost · K% · BB%
  • Command & Stuff
    Pitching+ · Stuff+ · Command+ · meatball rate
  • Pitcher Stuff Lab
    In-zone whiff · xwOBAcon · tunnel · deception · count predictability
  • Stuff Model (diag)
    From-scratch XGBoost training runs, feature importance, pitcher grades
  • Expected Points
    Luck-neutral fantasy points · xSLG / xwOBA · ΔPts
  • Hitter Frontier
    Power × discipline tradeoff · Pareto-frontier hitters
  • Pitcher Frontier
    Process × contact-suppression · pound the zone vs limit damage
  • Hitter Vulnerabilities
    Biggest pitch-trait strengths & weaknesses · vs league or vs own
  • AAA Hitters
    Triple-A bats · xwOBA · contact quality · discipline · frontier
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Position cohort

Pitching value vs. SP peers

Rank #51 of 165

Each bar is one SP, ordered left-to-right by Value (blended). Center dot is VORP; whiskers span V⁻ → V⁺. This player is highlighted in blue.

0+50+100+150Will Warren
Will Warren · #51
V⁻ —VORP 12V⁺ —
Will Warren

Will Warren

SP·NYY
Compare
Compare
BF
291
K %
25.8%
BB %
7.2%
xwOBA
.293
PTS
179
PPG
13.77
Career Seasons
YrGGSIPWLSVHLDERAFIPK%BB%K-BB%xwOBABABIPLOB%GB%PtsPPG
Proj241793.055003.963.8523.8%8.2%15.6%————1737.22
2026 MLB Percentiles

Pitching Profile

Arsenal
FB Velo
49
93.6
FB Spin
92
2483
Extension
2026
13
13
68.7
7
1
0
0
3.28
3.25
25.8%
7.2%
18.6%
.293
.290
67.4%
43.8%
179
13.77
20253635174.3109004.854.5024.0%9.1%14.9%.332.30570.3%42.8%2777.69
20247527.713008.784.7625.9%8.9%17.0%.333.37850.0%37.7%00.00
62
6.60
Results
xwOBA
81
.293
Barrel %
72
6.8
Hard-Hit %
53
39.6
K %
81
25.8
BB %
67
7.2
Chase %
21
27.9
Whiff %
52
22.0
Command & Stuff

Pitching+

Expected run-value conceded per pitch against a rational hitter, standardized against the season. 100 = avg · 110 = 1 SD better.

Pitching+
115
≈ 93th pctl
Stuff+
105
if they swing
Command+
102
out-of-zone take RV
Strike quality+
111
RV of in-zone pitches
Crushable pitches
8.3%
33 meatballs
Putaway counts (0-2, 1-2)
0.038
RV per pitch · league 0.042
-0.004 better than avg · 130 pitches
Lower RV = more wasted whiff chances when they choose not to put hitters away.
Hitter's counts (3-0, 3-1, 2-0)
0.015
RV per pitch · league 0.029
-0.014 better than avg · 28 pitches
How often they groove get-me-overs vs. nibble safely.
Based on 396 pitches. RV = Statcast delta_run_exp; lower = better for the pitcher.
Pitch Arsenal
PitchUsageVeloSpinIVBHBExtWhiff%Zone%CSW%Chase%PutAway%xwOBA
4-Seam FastballFF
41.0%94.02565+16.0+7.76.6822.2%59.9%30.7%20.0%20.4%0.313
SinkerSI
27.2%93.7

2026 Movement Profile (Induced Break)

MLB Avg.
6"12"18"24"24"24"24"1B ◀ MOVES TOWARD ▶ 3B▲MORERISE▼MOREDROPARMANGLE30°100 PITCHSAMPLE
FFSISTCHCU
Usage41%27%23%6%3%
MPH94.093.784.586.982.0
RHP Avg95.094.383.386.980.2
2392
+5.7
+16.9
6.67
22.5%
51.6%
31.9%
25.0%
25.0%
0.268
SweeperST
22.8%84.53017+0.6-18.26.4915.4%42.1%26.3%25.0%15.0%0.377
ChangeupCH
5.7%86.91629-0.7+16.26.4433.3%15.8%21.1%37.5%7.1%0.301
CurveballCU
3.3%82.02850-12.1-12.06.4116.7%9.1%9.1%50.0%14.3%0.248

2026 Swing-Out Snapshot

Commit at the decision point, then fast-forward 150ms. Where is each pitch when your bat crosses the zone? Two views of the same moment — catcher-facing and from the side.

Catcher View
horizontal × vertical
0.5′1′1.5′2′2.5′3′DECISIONPOINTFF · 21″ST · 27″SI · 22″CH · 25″CU · 30″arm side ◀ ▶ glove sidedrops ◀ ▶ rises
Side View
depth × vertical
1′2′3′4′5′6′-3′0′5′10′15′20′23′FF · 29″ST · 53″SI · 30″CH · 46″CU · 60″DECISION POINTPLATEfeet to plate
swing time150 ms

Each pitch is launched from a shared decision point (4.12′ height) and advanced using its own Statcast kinematics (release velocity + constant acceleration, so gravity, drag, and Magnus are all in the curve). RHP.

2026 Tunneling

Where pitches are when the hitter commits — and where they end up. Tighter cluster on the left = more deceptive arsenal.

At Decision
23 ft out · ~280ms before arrival
FFSISTCHCU-2′-1′0′1′2′1′2′3′4′1B ◀ catcher view ▶ 3B
At the Plate
Where they actually cross
FFSISTCHCU-2′-1′0′1′2′1′2′3′4′1B ◀ catcher view ▶ 3B
FFSISTCHCU

Decision point computed from Statcast kinematics (vx0/vy0/vz0, ax/ay/az) by projecting each pitch back to y = 23 ft. Coordinates in catcher’s view: 1B on the left, 3B on the right. RHP.