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    In-house Bayesian model · career prior + aging × stuff/discipline signals
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    Decision+ · chase / passive cost · K% · BB%
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    Pitching+ · Stuff+ · Command+ · meatball rate
  • Pitcher Stuff Lab
    In-zone whiff · xwOBAcon · tunnel · deception · count predictability
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    From-scratch XGBoost training runs, feature importance, pitcher grades
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    Luck-neutral fantasy points · xSLG / xwOBA · ΔPts
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    Power × discipline tradeoff · Pareto-frontier hitters
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    Process × contact-suppression · pound the zone vs limit damage
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    Biggest pitch-trait strengths & weaknesses · vs league or vs own
  • AAA Hitters
    Triple-A bats · xwOBA · contact quality · discipline · frontier
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Willi Castro

Willi Castro

1B / 2B / 3B / SS / OF·COL
Compare
Compare
BF
11
K %
0.0%
BB %
18.2%
xwOBA
.398
PTS
-4
PPG
-1.33
Career Seasons
YrGGSIPWLSVHLDERAFIPK%BB%K-BB%xwOBABABIPLOB%GB%PtsPPG
2025101.000000.003.100.0%0.0%0.0%.206.250100.0%0.0%22.00
2023 MLB Percentiles

Pitching Profile

11 BF — below qualified cutoff. Percentiles vs. qualified pool (faded).

Arsenal
FB Velo
0
—
FB Spin
0
—
2024
2
0
1.3
0
0
0
0
0.00
3.10
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
.442
.000
—
50.0%
4
2.00
2023302.3000011.575.670.0%18.2%-18.2%.398.33340.0%55.6%-4-1.33
Extension
0
4.85
Results
xwOBA
1
.398
Barrel %
100
0.0
Hard-Hit %
100
11.1
K %
0
0.0
BB %
0
18.2
Chase %
13
25.9
Whiff %
0
0.0
Command & Stuff

Pitching+

Expected run-value conceded per pitch against a rational hitter, standardized against the season. 100 = avg · 110 = 1 SD better.

Pitching+
-18
≈ 1th pctl
Stuff+
4
if they swing
Command+
74
out-of-zone take RV
Strike quality+
40
RV of in-zone pitches
Crushable pitches
52.8%
19 meatballs
Putaway counts (0-2, 1-2)
0.096
RV per pitch · league 0.048
+0.048 worse than avg · 8 pitches
Lower RV = more wasted whiff chances when they choose not to put hitters away.
Hitter's counts (3-0, 3-1, 2-0)
0.092
RV per pitch · league 0.030
+0.061 worse than avg · 3 pitches
How often they groove get-me-overs vs. nibble safely.
Based on 36 pitches. RV = Statcast delta_run_exp; lower = better for the pitcher.
Pitch Arsenal
PitchUsageVeloSpinIVBHBExtWhiff%Zone%CSW%Chase%PutAway%xwOBA
EephusEP
91.7%45.11117+17.6-9.04.840.0%27.3%9.1%29.2%0.0%0.368
OtherFA
8.3%71.51798

2023 Movement Profile (Induced Break)

MLB Avg.
6"12"18"24"24"24"24"1B ◀ MOVES TOWARD ▶ 3B▲MORERISE▼MOREDROPARMANGLE65°100 PITCHSAMPLE
EPFA
Usage92%8%
MPH45.171.5
RHP Avg48.167.4
+18.4
+9.0
4.93
—
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.696

2023 Swing-Out Snapshot

Commit at the decision point, then fast-forward 150ms. Where is each pitch when your bat crosses the zone? Two views of the same moment — catcher-facing and from the side.

Catcher View
horizontal × vertical
0.5′1′1.5′2′2.5′3′DECISIONPOINTEP · 17″FA · 23″arm side ◀ ▶ glove sidedrops ◀ ▶ rises
Side View
depth × vertical
1′2′3′4′5′6′-3′0′5′10′15′20′23′EP · 149″FA · 83″DECISION POINTPLATEfeet to plate
swing time150 ms

Each pitch is launched from a shared decision point (6.79′ height) and advanced using its own Statcast kinematics (release velocity + constant acceleration, so gravity, drag, and Magnus are all in the curve). RHP.

2023 Tunneling

Where pitches are when the hitter commits — and where they end up. Tighter cluster on the left = more deceptive arsenal.

At Decision
23 ft out · ~280ms before arrival
EPFA-2′-1′0′1′2′1′2′3′4′1B ◀ catcher view ▶ 3B
At the Plate
Where they actually cross
EPFA-2′-1′0′1′2′1′2′3′4′1B ◀ catcher view ▶ 3B
EPFA

Decision point computed from Statcast kinematics (vx0/vy0/vz0, ax/ay/az) by projecting each pitch back to y = 23 ft. Coordinates in catcher’s view: 1B on the left, 3B on the right. RHP.