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  • Projections
    In-house Bayesian model · career prior + aging × stuff/discipline signals
  • Plate Discipline
    Decision+ · chase / passive cost · K% · BB%
  • Command & Stuff
    Pitching+ · Stuff+ · Command+ · meatball rate
  • Pitcher Stuff Lab
    In-zone whiff · xwOBAcon · tunnel · deception · count predictability
  • Stuff Model (diag)
    From-scratch XGBoost training runs, feature importance, pitcher grades
  • Expected Points
    Luck-neutral fantasy points · xSLG / xwOBA · ΔPts
  • Hitter Frontier
    Power × discipline tradeoff · Pareto-frontier hitters
  • Pitcher Frontier
    Process × contact-suppression · pound the zone vs limit damage
  • Hitter Vulnerabilities
    Biggest pitch-trait strengths & weaknesses · vs league or vs own
  • AAA Hitters
    Triple-A bats · xwOBA · contact quality · discipline · frontier
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William Contreras

William Contreras

C·MIL
Compare
Compare
PA
611
H
156
HR
17
AVG
.289
xwOBA
.337
PPG
2.55
Career Seasons
YrGPAAVGOBPSLGISOxwOBAK%BB%K-BB%HRSBPtsPPGxPPG
202661269.290.355.407.117.34412.6%8.6%4.0%611652.70—
2025161660.259
2023 MLB Percentiles

Hitting Profile

Expected Results
xwOBA
50
.337
xBA
36
.249
xSLG
.358
.399
.140
.335
18.2%
12.7%
5.5%
17
6
392
2.43
—
2024162679.281.367.466.185.36320.5%11.5%9.0%2394232.61—
2023148611.289.368.457.168.33720.6%10.3%10.3%1763782.55—
2022112376.278.356.506.228.34827.7%10.4%17.3%2022111.88—
202162185.215.304.399.184.32329.2%10.3%18.9%80901.45—
2020410.400.400.500.100.33940.0%0.0%40.0%0010.25—
45
.435
Quality of Contact
Avg EV
73
91.2
Median EV
81
94.6
90th % EV
92
108.8
Barrel %
53
9.4
Hard-Hit %
80
48.7
Sweet-Spot %
0
27.6
Bat Speed
Avg
71
71.9
Median
76
73.7
90th %
78
78.8
Plate Discipline
Chase %
72
24.7
Whiff %
27
25.8
K %
51
20.6
BB %
69
10.3
Swing Decisions

Plate Discipline · Decision+

Expected-run-value of every swing-or-take decision, against a league-average batter’s optimum. 100 = avg · 110 = 1 SD better.

Decision+
103
≈ 62th pctl
Chase cost
-39.5r
371 swings @ bad pitch
Passive cost
-20.2r
385 takes @ hittable pitch
Swing rate
43.2%
2,455 pitches seen
Runs per 100
-2.43
lg avg -2.54
Count
View
3+22%9+10%10322+20%15+11%18+17%29+25%24+45%22+27%154+25%20-8%37-39%57-25%63-4%48+35%26+14%7+32%28+0%48-37%80-30%63-36%28+41%223+25%24+21%47-4%48+4%26+25%12+27%152+13%8+15%13+9%114+0%621CATCHER'S VIEW
Judgment — swing% vs optimal
−35%−15%0+15%+35%
  • Red cells — swings more than an optimal batter would here (chasing).
  • Blue cells — swings less than optimal (too passive).
  • Number in cell: swing%-delta vs optimal. Top-right: pitches seen.
Total pitches shown: 1,000