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  • Projections
    In-house Bayesian model · career prior + aging × stuff/discipline signals
  • Plate Discipline
    Decision+ · chase / passive cost · K% · BB%
  • Command & Stuff
    Pitching+ · Stuff+ · Command+ · meatball rate
  • Pitcher Stuff Lab
    In-zone whiff · xwOBAcon · tunnel · deception · count predictability
  • Stuff Model (diag)
    From-scratch XGBoost training runs, feature importance, pitcher grades
  • Expected Points
    Luck-neutral fantasy points · xSLG / xwOBA · ΔPts
  • Hitter Frontier
    Power × discipline tradeoff · Pareto-frontier hitters
  • Pitcher Frontier
    Process × contact-suppression · pound the zone vs limit damage
  • Hitter Vulnerabilities
    Biggest pitch-trait strengths & weaknesses · vs league or vs own
  • AAA Hitters
    Triple-A bats · xwOBA · contact quality · discipline · frontier
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William Contreras

William Contreras

C·MIL
Compare
Compare
PA
660
H
147
HR
17
AVG
.259
xwOBA
.335
PPG
2.43
Career Seasons
YrGPAAVGOBPSLGISOxwOBAK%BB%K-BB%HRSBPtsPPGxPPG
202661269.290.355.407.117.34412.6%8.6%4.0%611652.70—
2025161660.259
2025 MLB Percentiles

Hitting Profile

Expected Results
xwOBA
52
.335
xBA
53
.257
xSLG
.358
.399
.140
.335
18.2%
12.7%
5.5%
17
6
392
2.43
—
2024162679.281.367.466.185.36320.5%11.5%9.0%2394232.61—
2023148611.289.368.457.168.33720.6%10.3%10.3%1763782.55—
2022112376.278.356.506.228.34827.7%10.4%17.3%2022111.88—
202162185.215.304.399.184.32329.2%10.3%18.9%80901.45—
2020410.400.400.500.100.33940.0%0.0%40.0%0010.25—
24
.405
Quality of Contact
Avg EV
73
91.1
Median EV
74
94.3
90th % EV
74
107.4
Barrel %
19
6.4
Hard-Hit %
77
48.5
Sweet-Spot %
9
31.9
Bat Speed
Avg
60
71.2
Median
59
72.6
90th %
70
78.3
Plate Discipline
Chase %
63
25.3
Whiff %
48
22.2
K %
68
18.2
BB %
86
12.7
Swing Decisions

Plate Discipline · Decision+

Expected-run-value of every swing-or-take decision, against a league-average batter’s optimum. 100 = avg · 110 = 1 SD better.

Decision+
110
≈ 83th pctl
Chase cost
-39.4r
408 swings @ bad pitch
Passive cost
-16.2r
327 takes @ hittable pitch
Swing rate
46.5%
2,556 pitches seen
Runs per 100
-2.17
lg avg -2.53
Count
View
21+0%74+0%741+22%9+24%17+7%29+0%37+38%13+8%12+0%8+33%21-5%39-31%61-17%54-16%45+44%27+17%12+22%18-2%52-19%68-21%71-19%42+44%27+8%13+29%21+28%25+20%46+10%41+11%27+0%122+9%11+14%14+29%7+0%613CATCHER'S VIEW
Judgment — swing% vs optimal
−35%−15%0+15%+35%
  • Red cells — swings more than an optimal batter would here (chasing).
  • Blue cells — swings less than optimal (too passive).
  • Number in cell: swing%-delta vs optimal. Top-right: pitches seen.
Total pitches shown: 1,000