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  • Projections
    In-house Bayesian model · career prior + aging × stuff/discipline signals
  • Plate Discipline
    Decision+ · chase / passive cost · K% · BB%
  • Command & Stuff
    Pitching+ · Stuff+ · Command+ · meatball rate
  • Pitcher Stuff Lab
    In-zone whiff · xwOBAcon · tunnel · deception · count predictability
  • Stuff Model (diag)
    From-scratch XGBoost training runs, feature importance, pitcher grades
  • Expected Points
    Luck-neutral fantasy points · xSLG / xwOBA · ΔPts
  • Hitter Frontier
    Power × discipline tradeoff · Pareto-frontier hitters
  • Pitcher Frontier
    Process × contact-suppression · pound the zone vs limit damage
  • Hitter Vulnerabilities
    Biggest pitch-trait strengths & weaknesses · vs league or vs own
  • AAA Hitters
    Triple-A bats · xwOBA · contact quality · discipline · frontier
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Position cohort

Hitting value vs. C peers

Rank #3 of 66

Each bar is one C, ordered left-to-right by Value (blended). Center dot is VORP; whiskers span V⁻ → V⁺. This player is highlighted in blue.

-300-200-1000+100William Contreras
William Contreras · #3
V⁻ 7VORP -95V⁺ 72
William Contreras

William Contreras

C·MIL
Compare
Compare
PA
269
H
70
HR
6
AVG
.290
xwOBA
.344
PPG
2.70
Career Seasons
YrGPAAVGOBPSLGISOxwOBAK%BB%K-BB%HRSBPtsPPGxPPG
Proj100397.272.358.434.162.35317.7%11.4%6.3%1232312.31—
202661269.290
2026 MLB Percentiles

Hitting Profile

Expected Results
xwOBA
55
.344
xBA
80
.282
xSLG
.355
.407
.117
.344
12.6%
8.6%
4.0%
6
1
165
2.70
—
2025161660.259.358.399.140.33518.2%12.7%5.5%1763922.43—
2024162679.281.367.466.185.36320.5%11.5%9.0%2394232.61—
2023148611.289.368.457.168.33720.6%10.3%10.3%1763782.55—
2022112376.278.356.506.228.34827.7%10.4%17.3%2022111.88—
202162185.215.304.399.184.32329.2%10.3%18.9%80901.45—
2020410.400.400.500.100.33940.0%0.0%40.0%0010.25—
60
.444
Quality of Contact
Avg EV
51
89.9
Median EV
53
92.9
90th % EV
69
106.5
Barrel %
31
7.1
Hard-Hit %
45
41.7
Sweet-Spot %
7
29.9
Bat Speed
Avg
62
71.4
Median
69
73.4
90th %
62
77.6
Plate Discipline
Chase %
47
29.5
Whiff %
78
16.5
K %
88
12.6
BB %
38
8.6
Swing Decisions

Plate Discipline · Decision+

Expected-run-value of every swing-or-take decision, against a league-average batter’s optimum. 100 = avg · 110 = 1 SD better.

Decision+
111
≈ 85th pctl
Chase cost
-4.6r
54 swings @ bad pitch
Passive cost
-2.6r
50 takes @ hittable pitch
Swing rate
44.2%
346 pitches seen
Runs per 100
-2.09
lg avg -2.53
Count
View
13211355+55%11+64%1134+25%8-20%15-30%23-23%26+23%13+36%112+8%12+16%19-38%26-30%20-20%1531+22%93+0%10-6%16+25%821431+0%61CATCHER'S VIEW
Judgment — swing% vs optimal
−35%−15%0+15%+35%
  • Red cells — swings more than an optimal batter would here (chasing).
  • Blue cells — swings less than optimal (too passive).
  • Number in cell: swing%-delta vs optimal. Top-right: pitches seen.
Total pitches shown: 346