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  • Projections
    In-house Bayesian model · career prior + aging × stuff/discipline signals
  • Plate Discipline
    Decision+ · chase / passive cost · K% · BB%
  • Command & Stuff
    Pitching+ · Stuff+ · Command+ · meatball rate
  • Pitcher Stuff Lab
    In-zone whiff · xwOBAcon · tunnel · deception · count predictability
  • Stuff Model (diag)
    From-scratch XGBoost training runs, feature importance, pitcher grades
  • Expected Points
    Luck-neutral fantasy points · xSLG / xwOBA · ΔPts
  • Hitter Frontier
    Power × discipline tradeoff · Pareto-frontier hitters
  • Pitcher Frontier
    Process × contact-suppression · pound the zone vs limit damage
  • Hitter Vulnerabilities
    Biggest pitch-trait strengths & weaknesses · vs league or vs own
  • AAA Hitters
    Triple-A bats · xwOBA · contact quality · discipline · frontier
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Position cohort

Hitting value vs. 1B peers

Rank #13 of 40

Each bar is one 1B, ordered left-to-right by Value (blended). Center dot is VORP; whiskers span V⁻ → V⁺. This player is highlighted in blue.

-500+50+100Willson Contreras
Willson Contreras · #13
V⁻ -19VORP 8V⁺ 47
Willson Contreras

Willson Contreras

1B·BOS
Compare
Compare
PA
271
H
67
HR
14
AVG
.291
xwOBA
.390
PPG
2.59
Career Seasons
YrGPAAVGOBPSLGISOxwOBAK%BB%K-BB%HRSBPtsPPGxPPG
Proj93404.255.348.456.201.35825.1%9.7%15.4%1732192.35—
202664271.291
2026 MLB Percentiles

Hitting Profile

Expected Results
xwOBA
90
.390
xBA
67
.267
xSLG
.392
.535
.244
.390
25.1%
9.2%
15.9%
14
1
166
2.59
—
2025138563.257.346.447.190.36125.2%7.8%17.4%2053082.23—
202488358.262.380.468.206.37226.8%12.6%14.2%1541952.22—
2023128495.264.360.467.203.37522.4%10.3%12.1%2082862.23—
2022123488.242.350.465.223.36921.1%9.2%11.9%2243002.44—
2021133484.237.342.437.200.34728.5%10.7%17.8%2152441.83—
202061225.243.359.407.164.35725.3%8.9%16.4%711382.26—
2019106409.272.356.533.261.35024.9%9.3%15.6%2412652.50—
2018143544.249.341.390.141.30522.2%9.7%12.5%1042491.74—
2017133428.276.358.499.223.35322.9%10.5%12.4%2163062.30—
86
.512
Quality of Contact
Avg EV
56
90.0
Median EV
67
93.9
90th % EV
89
108.6
Barrel %
85
14.6
Hard-Hit %
57
44.5
Sweet-Spot %
48
36.0
Bat Speed
Avg
91
74.5
Median
90
75.6
90th %
91
80.4
Plate Discipline
Chase %
27
33.2
Whiff %
16
28.7
K %
23
25.1
BB %
48
9.2
Swing Decisions

Plate Discipline · Decision+

Expected-run-value of every swing-or-take decision, against a league-average batter’s optimum. 100 = avg · 110 = 1 SD better.

Decision+
103
≈ 62th pctl
Chase cost
-6.5r
64 swings @ bad pitch
Passive cost
-2.5r
58 takes @ hittable pitch
Swing rate
41.3%
373 pitches seen
Runs per 100
-2.40
lg avg -2.53
Count
View
2232122+29%74+20%10-29%721+38%8+0%18-70%10-17%18-22%27+44%91+38%13+17%18-35%23-27%30-6%17+0%82+50%8+30%10+25%12-11%9+11%92+0%75+14%7+33%6+0%631CATCHER'S VIEW
Judgment — swing% vs optimal
−35%−15%0+15%+35%
  • Red cells — swings more than an optimal batter would here (chasing).
  • Blue cells — swings less than optimal (too passive).
  • Number in cell: swing%-delta vs optimal. Top-right: pitches seen.
Total pitches shown: 373