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  • Projections
    In-house Bayesian model · career prior + aging × stuff/discipline signals
  • Plate Discipline
    Decision+ · chase / passive cost · K% · BB%
  • Command & Stuff
    Pitching+ · Stuff+ · Command+ · meatball rate
  • Pitcher Stuff Lab
    In-zone whiff · xwOBAcon · tunnel · deception · count predictability
  • Stuff Model (diag)
    From-scratch XGBoost training runs, feature importance, pitcher grades
  • Expected Points
    Luck-neutral fantasy points · xSLG / xwOBA · ΔPts
  • Hitter Frontier
    Power × discipline tradeoff · Pareto-frontier hitters
  • Pitcher Frontier
    Process × contact-suppression · pound the zone vs limit damage
  • Hitter Vulnerabilities
    Biggest pitch-trait strengths & weaknesses · vs league or vs own
  • AAA Hitters
    Triple-A bats · xwOBA · contact quality · discipline · frontier
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Willson Contreras

Willson Contreras

1B·BOS
Compare
Compare
PA
358
H
79
HR
15
AVG
.262
xwOBA
.372
PPG
2.22
Career Seasons
YrGPAAVGOBPSLGISOxwOBAK%BB%K-BB%HRSBPtsPPGxPPG
202664271.291.392.535.244.39025.1%9.2%15.9%1411662.59—
2025138563.257
2024 MLB Percentiles

Hitting Profile

358 PA — below qualified cutoff. Percentiles vs. qualified pool (faded).

Expected Results
xwOBA
87
.372
xBA
56
.253
.346
.447
.190
.361
25.2%
7.8%
17.4%
20
5
308
2.23
—
202488358.262.380.468.206.37226.8%12.6%14.2%1541952.22—
2023128495.264.360.467.203.37522.4%10.3%12.1%2082862.23—
2022123488.242.350.465.223.36921.1%9.2%11.9%2243002.44—
2021133484.237.342.437.200.34728.5%10.7%17.8%2152441.83—
202061225.243.359.407.164.35725.3%8.9%16.4%711382.26—
2019106409.272.356.533.261.35024.9%9.3%15.6%2412652.50—
2018143544.249.341.390.141.30522.2%9.7%12.5%1042491.74—
2017133428.276.358.499.223.35322.9%10.5%12.4%2163062.30—
xSLG
59
.456
Quality of Contact
Avg EV
81
91.6
Median EV
66
93.5
90th % EV
92
109.0
Barrel %
66
11.2
Hard-Hit %
72
46.8
Sweet-Spot %
28
34.1
Bat Speed
Avg
92
74.1
Median
93
75.8
90th %
92
80.3
Plate Discipline
Chase %
36
29.8
Whiff %
1
33.3
K %
15
26.8
BB %
97
12.6
Swing Decisions

Plate Discipline · Decision+

Expected-run-value of every swing-or-take decision, against a league-average batter’s optimum. 100 = avg · 110 = 1 SD better.

Decision+
101
≈ 54th pctl
Chase cost
-25.0r
259 swings @ bad pitch
Passive cost
-9.7r
158 takes @ hittable pitch
Swing rate
49.9%
1,391 pitches seen
Runs per 100
-2.50
lg avg -2.53
Count
View
+0%6252+0%75+13%8+25%12+5%21+0%14+50%22+50%16+0%7+33%21-31%36-23%52-18%44-10%49+35%26+17%12+65%20-2%46-27%56-26%58-30%47+28%25+11%9+50%36+43%35+26%57+13%39+15%34+21%195+0%9+0%12+21%14+38%8+0%651CATCHER'S VIEW
Judgment — swing% vs optimal
−35%−15%0+15%+35%
  • Red cells — swings more than an optimal batter would here (chasing).
  • Blue cells — swings less than optimal (too passive).
  • Number in cell: swing%-delta vs optimal. Top-right: pitches seen.
Total pitches shown: 1,000