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  • Projections
    In-house Bayesian model · career prior + aging × stuff/discipline signals
  • Plate Discipline
    Decision+ · chase / passive cost · K% · BB%
  • Command & Stuff
    Pitching+ · Stuff+ · Command+ · meatball rate
  • Pitcher Stuff Lab
    In-zone whiff · xwOBAcon · tunnel · deception · count predictability
  • Stuff Model (diag)
    From-scratch XGBoost training runs, feature importance, pitcher grades
  • Expected Points
    Luck-neutral fantasy points · xSLG / xwOBA · ΔPts
  • Hitter Frontier
    Power × discipline tradeoff · Pareto-frontier hitters
  • Pitcher Frontier
    Process × contact-suppression · pound the zone vs limit damage
  • Hitter Vulnerabilities
    Biggest pitch-trait strengths & weaknesses · vs league or vs own
  • AAA Hitters
    Triple-A bats · xwOBA · contact quality · discipline · frontier
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Willson Contreras

Willson Contreras

1B·BOS
Compare
Compare
PA
563
H
126
HR
20
AVG
.257
xwOBA
.361
PPG
2.23
Career Seasons
YrGPAAVGOBPSLGISOxwOBAK%BB%K-BB%HRSBPtsPPGxPPG
202662258.292.392.530.238.39724.8%9.7%15.1%1311562.52—
2025138563.257
2025 MLB Percentiles

Hitting Profile

Expected Results
xwOBA
81
.361
xBA
49
.254
xSLG
.346
.447
.190
.361
25.2%
7.8%
17.4%
20
5
308
2.23
—
202488358.262.380.468.206.37226.8%12.6%14.2%1541952.22—
2023128495.264.360.467.203.37522.4%10.3%12.1%2082862.23—
2022123488.242.350.465.223.36921.1%9.2%11.9%2243002.44—
2021133484.237.342.437.200.34728.5%10.7%17.8%2152441.83—
202061225.243.359.407.164.35725.3%8.9%16.4%711382.26—
2019106409.272.356.533.261.35024.9%9.3%15.6%2412652.50—
2018143544.249.341.390.141.30522.2%9.7%12.5%1042491.74—
2017133428.276.358.499.223.35322.9%10.5%12.4%2163062.30—
78
.483
Quality of Contact
Avg EV
58
90.5
Median EV
77
94.4
90th % EV
86
108.2
Barrel %
80
13.9
Hard-Hit %
80
49.0
Sweet-Spot %
78
38.8
Bat Speed
Avg
95
74.3
Median
93
75.6
90th %
92
80.5
Plate Discipline
Chase %
31
30.1
Whiff %
26
26.4
K %
24
25.2
BB %
39
7.8
Swing Decisions

Plate Discipline · Decision+

Expected-run-value of every swing-or-take decision, against a league-average batter’s optimum. 100 = avg · 110 = 1 SD better.

Decision+
104
≈ 65th pctl
Chase cost
-34.6r
376 swings @ bad pitch
Passive cost
-17.3r
305 takes @ hittable pitch
Swing rate
48.4%
2,174 pitches seen
Runs per 100
-2.39
lg avg -2.53
Count
View
2+0%754+0%62+13%8+25%8+13%16+0%24+11%28+17%18+0%12+33%18+4%26-40%65-19%69-19%48+15%33+6%16+48%23+11%47-26%65-25%63-35%48+32%345+53%17+44%18+15%41+18%34+16%25+21%143+15%13+6%16+40%10+7%14+13%85CATCHER'S VIEW
Judgment — swing% vs optimal
−35%−15%0+15%+35%
  • Red cells — swings more than an optimal batter would here (chasing).
  • Blue cells — swings less than optimal (too passive).
  • Number in cell: swing%-delta vs optimal. Top-right: pitches seen.
Total pitches shown: 1,000