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  • Projections
    In-house Bayesian model · career prior + aging × stuff/discipline signals
  • Plate Discipline
    Decision+ · chase / passive cost · K% · BB%
  • Command & Stuff
    Pitching+ · Stuff+ · Command+ · meatball rate
  • Pitcher Stuff Lab
    In-zone whiff · xwOBAcon · tunnel · deception · count predictability
  • Stuff Model (diag)
    From-scratch XGBoost training runs, feature importance, pitcher grades
  • Expected Points
    Luck-neutral fantasy points · xSLG / xwOBA · ΔPts
  • Hitter Frontier
    Power × discipline tradeoff · Pareto-frontier hitters
  • Pitcher Frontier
    Process × contact-suppression · pound the zone vs limit damage
  • Hitter Vulnerabilities
    Biggest pitch-trait strengths & weaknesses · vs league or vs own
  • AAA Hitters
    Triple-A bats · xwOBA · contact quality · discipline · frontier
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Position cohort

Hitting value vs. OF peers

Rank #28 of 234

Each bar is one OF, ordered left-to-right by Value (blended). Center dot is VORP; whiskers span V⁻ → V⁺. This player is highlighted in blue.

-500+50+100+150+200Wilyer Abreu
Wilyer Abreu · #28
V⁻ -20VORP 32V⁺ 46
Wilyer Abreu

Wilyer Abreu

OF·BOS
Compare
Compare
PA
287
H
72
HR
8
AVG
.278
xwOBA
.345
PPG
2.24
Career Seasons
YrGPAAVGOBPSLGISOxwOBAK%BB%K-BB%HRSBPtsPPGxPPG
Proj85367.254.332.449.196.34622.8%10.3%12.5%1462022.37—
202666287.278
2026 MLB Percentiles

Hitting Profile

Expected Results
xwOBA
58
.345
xBA
63
.265
xSLG
.339
.436
.158
.345
19.5%
8.4%
11.1%
8
4
148
2.24
—
2025118417.247.320.469.222.34124.2%9.6%14.6%2262432.06—
2024138449.252.324.456.204.32427.8%8.9%18.9%1582291.66—
20232785.316.388.474.158.35727.1%10.6%16.5%23501.85—
71
.466
Quality of Contact
Avg EV
45
89.5
Median EV
85
95.8
90th % EV
75
106.8
Barrel %
70
11.7
Hard-Hit %
50
42.9
Sweet-Spot %
53
36.6
Bat Speed
Avg
69
72.2
Median
67
73.3
90th %
66
77.9
Plate Discipline
Chase %
43
30.7
Whiff %
60
19.9
K %
57
19.5
BB %
35
8.4
Swing Decisions

Plate Discipline · Decision+

Expected-run-value of every swing-or-take decision, against a league-average batter’s optimum. 100 = avg · 110 = 1 SD better.

Decision+
104
≈ 65th pctl
Chase cost
-5.2r
54 swings @ bad pitch
Passive cost
-2.5r
51 takes @ hittable pitch
Swing rate
46.5%
327 pitches seen
Runs per 100
-2.36
lg avg -2.53
Count
View
1251+0%65135-22%9+25%8+0%14+0%1145+26%19-36%28-35%26-6%17+38%845-7%15-33%21-20%15+0%16+57%72+0%64+18%11+33%9321111CATCHER'S VIEW
Judgment — swing% vs optimal
−35%−15%0+15%+35%
  • Red cells — swings more than an optimal batter would here (chasing).
  • Blue cells — swings less than optimal (too passive).
  • Number in cell: swing%-delta vs optimal. Top-right: pitches seen.
Total pitches shown: 327