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  • Projections
    In-house Bayesian model · career prior + aging × stuff/discipline signals
  • Plate Discipline
    Decision+ · chase / passive cost · K% · BB%
  • Command & Stuff
    Pitching+ · Stuff+ · Command+ · meatball rate
  • Pitcher Stuff Lab
    In-zone whiff · xwOBAcon · tunnel · deception · count predictability
  • Stuff Model (diag)
    From-scratch XGBoost training runs, feature importance, pitcher grades
  • Expected Points
    Luck-neutral fantasy points · xSLG / xwOBA · ΔPts
  • Hitter Frontier
    Power × discipline tradeoff · Pareto-frontier hitters
  • Pitcher Frontier
    Process × contact-suppression · pound the zone vs limit damage
  • Hitter Vulnerabilities
    Biggest pitch-trait strengths & weaknesses · vs league or vs own
  • AAA Hitters
    Triple-A bats · xwOBA · contact quality · discipline · frontier
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Position cohort

Hitting value vs. SS peers

Rank #17 of 64

Each bar is one SS, ordered left-to-right by Value (blended). Center dot is VORP; whiskers span V⁻ → V⁺. This player is highlighted in blue.

-200-1000+100Xander Bogaerts
Xander Bogaerts · #17
V⁻ -22VORP 21V⁺ 23
Xander Bogaerts

Xander Bogaerts

SS·SDP
Compare
Compare
PA
251
H
52
HR
8
AVG
.231
xwOBA
.320
PPG
1.92
Career Seasons
YrGPAAVGOBPSLGISOxwOBAK%BB%K-BB%HRSBPtsPPGxPPG
Proj94408.263.328.400.137.32717.4%8.5%8.8%10122152.29—
202663251.231
2026 MLB Percentiles

Hitting Profile

Expected Results
xwOBA
33
.320
xBA
43
.252
xSLG
.305
.356
.125
.320
18.3%
9.2%
9.1%
8
9
121
1.92
—
2025143557.260.330.387.127.33016.9%8.6%8.3%11212982.08—
2024120463.264.311.381.117.30817.1%6.0%11.1%11132361.97—
2023159666.285.353.439.154.31716.5%8.4%8.1%19193882.44—
2022159631.307.381.456.149.32718.7%9.0%9.7%1583742.35—
2021163603.295.374.493.198.36118.7%10.3%8.4%2354322.65—
202057226.299.364.500.201.34418.1%9.3%8.8%1181572.75—
2019161700.308.386.554.246.35817.4%10.9%6.5%3345433.37—
2018153583.287.362.519.232.36617.5%9.4%8.1%2384492.93—
2017156637.272.343.401.129.29218.2%8.8%9.4%10153632.33—
33
.398
Quality of Contact
Avg EV
30
88.2
Median EV
61
93.5
90th % EV
41
104.3
Barrel %
28
6.6
Hard-Hit %
28
37.6
Sweet-Spot %
11
30.9
Bat Speed
Avg
37
69.5
Median
39
71.1
90th %
53
76.7
Plate Discipline
Chase %
64
26.7
Whiff %
56
20.3
K %
64
18.3
BB %
46
9.2
Swing Decisions

Plate Discipline · Decision+

Expected-run-value of every swing-or-take decision, against a league-average batter’s optimum. 100 = avg · 110 = 1 SD better.

Decision+
115
≈ 93th pctl
Chase cost
-4.5r
54 swings @ bad pitch
Passive cost
-1.8r
44 takes @ hittable pitch
Swing rate
45.7%
328 pitches seen
Runs per 100
-1.90
lg avg -2.53
Count
View
2513+75%8+0%10-8%12+67%1245+0%12-41%17-14%21+0%1342+0%8+15%20-40%25-16%25-9%11+56%91+14%7+13%15+11%9+8%1352225+0%7111CATCHER'S VIEW
Judgment — swing% vs optimal
−35%−15%0+15%+35%
  • Red cells — swings more than an optimal batter would here (chasing).
  • Blue cells — swings less than optimal (too passive).
  • Number in cell: swing%-delta vs optimal. Top-right: pitches seen.
Total pitches shown: 328