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  • Projections
    In-house Bayesian model · career prior + aging × stuff/discipline signals
  • Plate Discipline
    Decision+ · chase / passive cost · K% · BB%
  • Command & Stuff
    Pitching+ · Stuff+ · Command+ · meatball rate
  • Pitcher Stuff Lab
    In-zone whiff · xwOBAcon · tunnel · deception · count predictability
  • Stuff Model (diag)
    From-scratch XGBoost training runs, feature importance, pitcher grades
  • Expected Points
    Luck-neutral fantasy points · xSLG / xwOBA · ΔPts
  • Hitter Frontier
    Power × discipline tradeoff · Pareto-frontier hitters
  • Pitcher Frontier
    Process × contact-suppression · pound the zone vs limit damage
  • Hitter Vulnerabilities
    Biggest pitch-trait strengths & weaknesses · vs league or vs own
  • AAA Hitters
    Triple-A bats · xwOBA · contact quality · discipline · frontier
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Position cohort

Hitting value vs. OF peers

Rank #3 of 234

Each bar is one OF, ordered left-to-right by Value (blended). Center dot is VORP; whiskers span V⁻ → V⁺. This player is highlighted in blue.

-500+50+100+150+200Yordan Alvarez
Yordan Alvarez · #3
V⁻ 40VORP 124V⁺ 122
Yordan Alvarez

Yordan Alvarez

OF·HOU
Compare
Compare
PA
293
H
75
HR
22
AVG
.311
xwOBA
.502
PPG
3.68
Career Seasons
YrGPAAVGOBPSLGISOxwOBAK%BB%K-BB%HRSBPtsPPGxPPG
Proj89383.298.398.582.284.42516.9%13.2%3.7%2423053.42—
202668293.311
2026 MLB Percentiles

Hitting Profile

Expected Results
xwOBA
99
.502
xBA
99
.341
xSLG
.430
.639
.328
.502
17.7%
15.4%
2.3%
22
1
250
3.68
—
202551199.273.378.430.157.40416.6%14.1%2.5%611182.31—
2024154635.308.395.567.259.42515.0%10.9%4.1%3564883.17—
2023129496.293.411.583.290.44018.5%13.9%4.6%3104673.62—
2022155562.306.411.611.305.46718.9%13.9%5.0%3715093.28—
2021166599.277.347.530.253.38824.2%8.3%15.9%3314542.73—
202029.250.333.625.375.35311.1%0.0%11.1%10115.50—
2019109369.313.414.655.342.41525.5%14.1%11.4%2703142.88—
99
.730
Quality of Contact
Avg EV
97
94.9
Median EV
72
94.5
90th % EV
95
110.7
Barrel %
95
18.8
Hard-Hit %
95
54.5
Sweet-Spot %
99
47.6
Bat Speed
Avg
93
74.8
Median
80
74.5
90th %
83
79.7
Plate Discipline
Chase %
65
26.6
Whiff %
72
17.9
K %
66
17.7
BB %
93
15.4
Swing Decisions

Plate Discipline · Decision+

Expected-run-value of every swing-or-take decision, against a league-average batter’s optimum. 100 = avg · 110 = 1 SD better.

Decision+
96
≈ 34th pctl
Chase cost
-7.4r
67 swings @ bad pitch
Passive cost
-2.7r
56 takes @ hittable pitch
Swing rate
41.6%
373 pitches seen
Runs per 100
-2.71
lg avg -2.53
Count
View
234225+33%9+19%16+20%10+18%11+13%8+46%13+10%21-50%16-45%20-10%21+30%102+57%7+8%13-48%25-33%12-31%16+33%935+50%8-22%9+38%13+18%114121431CATCHER'S VIEW
Judgment — swing% vs optimal
−35%−15%0+15%+35%
  • Red cells — swings more than an optimal batter would here (chasing).
  • Blue cells — swings less than optimal (too passive).
  • Number in cell: swing%-delta vs optimal. Top-right: pitches seen.
Total pitches shown: 373