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    In-house Bayesian model · career prior + aging × stuff/discipline signals
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    Decision+ · chase / passive cost · K% · BB%
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    Pitching+ · Stuff+ · Command+ · meatball rate
  • Pitcher Stuff Lab
    In-zone whiff · xwOBAcon · tunnel · deception · count predictability
  • Stuff Model (diag)
    From-scratch XGBoost training runs, feature importance, pitcher grades
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    Luck-neutral fantasy points · xSLG / xwOBA · ΔPts
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    Power × discipline tradeoff · Pareto-frontier hitters
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    Process × contact-suppression · pound the zone vs limit damage
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    Biggest pitch-trait strengths & weaknesses · vs league or vs own
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    Triple-A bats · xwOBA · contact quality · discipline · frontier
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Position cohort

Pitching value vs. SP peers

Rank #141 of 165

Each bar is one SP, ordered left-to-right by Value (blended). Center dot is VORP; whiskers span V⁻ → V⁺. This player is highlighted in blue.

-500+50+100+150Zac Gallen
Zac Gallen · #60
V⁻ —VORP -50V⁺ —
Zac Gallen

Zac Gallen

SP·ARI
Compare
Compare
BF
312
K %
14.7%
BB %
6.7%
xwOBA
.362
PTS
53
PPG
3.79
Career Seasons
YrGGSIPWLSVHLDERAFIPK%BB%K-BB%xwOBABABIPLOB%GB%PtsPPG
Proj2020113.087004.303.9720.5%7.6%12.9%————1869.32
2026 MLB Percentiles

Pitching Profile

Arsenal
FB Velo
40
93.2
FB Spin
59
2294
Extension
2026
14
14
69.7
3
5
0
0
5.43
4.82
14.7%
6.7%
8.0%
.362
.328
66.6%
46.9%
53
3.79
20253434196.31415004.774.4521.5%8.1%13.4%.322.27268.2%44.4%3048.94
20242929152.0147003.793.3225.1%8.7%16.4%.313.31173.4%46.2%32411.17
20234242250.31913003.703.4925.9%5.5%20.4%.316.29473.5%42.3%53912.83
20223333190.3124002.513.0126.8%6.6%20.2%.279.23878.2%46.7%52715.97
20212323121.3410004.304.1826.6%9.4%17.2%.308.28674.6%44.8%2058.91
2020121272.032002.753.5728.2%8.6%19.6%.297.26683.6%47.0%17914.92
2019161685.036002.753.4628.7%10.7%18.0%.294.27584.2%39.9%19111.94
57
6.56
Results
xwOBA
10
.362
Barrel %
31
9.5
Hard-Hit %
10
45.7
K %
6
14.7
BB %
73
6.7
Chase %
62
31.7
Whiff %
15
18.6
Command & Stuff

Pitching+

Expected run-value conceded per pitch against a rational hitter, standardized against the season. 100 = avg · 110 = 1 SD better.

Pitching+
93
≈ 23th pctl
Stuff+
112
if they swing
Command+
89
out-of-zone take RV
Strike quality+
101
RV of in-zone pitches
Crushable pitches
11.8%
48 meatballs
Putaway counts (0-2, 1-2)
0.047
RV per pitch · league 0.042
+0.005 worse than avg · 119 pitches
Lower RV = more wasted whiff chances when they choose not to put hitters away.
Hitter's counts (3-0, 3-1, 2-0)
0.036
RV per pitch · league 0.029
+0.006 worse than avg · 26 pitches
How often they groove get-me-overs vs. nibble safely.
Based on 408 pitches. RV = Statcast delta_run_exp; lower = better for the pitcher.
Pitch Arsenal
PitchUsageVeloSpinIVBHBExtWhiff%Zone%CSW%Chase%PutAway%xwOBA
4-Seam FastballFF
39.7%93.62318+17.9+5.36.615.3%54.4%27.2%24.2%13.8%0.391
SliderSL
24.8%88.9

2026 Movement Profile (Induced Break)

MLB Avg.
6"12"18"24"24"24"24"1B ◀ MOVES TOWARD ▶ 3B▲MORERISE▼MOREDROPARMANGLE44°100 PITCHSAMPLE
FFSLKCCHSIFC
Usage40%25%17%14%4%1%
MPH93.688.982.087.192.990.4
RHP Avg95.086.783.086.994.389.8
2325
+5.6
-4.2
6.67
31.7%
43.5%
24.7%
25.0%
13.8%
0.310
Knuckle CurveKC
16.6%82.02408-10.5-2.76.5411.5%36.8%17.5%44.4%4.2%0.607
ChangeupCH
13.7%87.11535+5.2+15.56.6121.7%19.1%17.0%44.7%11.8%0.255
SinkerSI
4.1%92.92249+17.2+15.16.610.0%35.7%28.6%44.4%0.0%0.306
CutterFC
1.2%90.42332+5.2-2.06.57100.0%0.0%50.0%50.0%——

2026 Swing-Out Snapshot

Commit at the decision point, then fast-forward 150ms. Where is each pitch when your bat crosses the zone? Two views of the same moment — catcher-facing and from the side.

Catcher View
horizontal × vertical
0.5′1′1.5′2′2.5′3′DECISIONPOINTFF · 21″SI · 20″CH · 23″SL · 27″FC · 28″KC · 27″arm side ◀ ▶ glove sidedrops ◀ ▶ rises
Side View
depth × vertical
1′2′3′4′5′6′-3′0′5′10′15′20′23′FF · 29″SI · 31″CH · 47″SL · 41″FC · 37″KC · 58″DECISION POINTPLATEfeet to plate
swing time150 ms

Each pitch is launched from a shared decision point (4.18′ height) and advanced using its own Statcast kinematics (release velocity + constant acceleration, so gravity, drag, and Magnus are all in the curve). RHP.

2026 Tunneling

Where pitches are when the hitter commits — and where they end up. Tighter cluster on the left = more deceptive arsenal.

At Decision
23 ft out · ~280ms before arrival
FFSLKCCHSIFC-2′-1′0′1′2′1′2′3′4′1B ◀ catcher view ▶ 3B
At the Plate
Where they actually cross
FFSLKCCHSIFC-2′-1′0′1′2′1′2′3′4′1B ◀ catcher view ▶ 3B
FFSLKCCHSIFC

Decision point computed from Statcast kinematics (vx0/vy0/vz0, ax/ay/az) by projecting each pitch back to y = 23 ft. Coordinates in catcher’s view: 1B on the left, 3B on the right. RHP.