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    In-house Bayesian model · career prior + aging × stuff/discipline signals
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    Decision+ · chase / passive cost · K% · BB%
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    Pitching+ · Stuff+ · Command+ · meatball rate
  • Pitcher Stuff Lab
    In-zone whiff · xwOBAcon · tunnel · deception · count predictability
  • Stuff Model (diag)
    From-scratch XGBoost training runs, feature importance, pitcher grades
  • Expected Points
    Luck-neutral fantasy points · xSLG / xwOBA · ΔPts
  • Hitter Frontier
    Power × discipline tradeoff · Pareto-frontier hitters
  • Pitcher Frontier
    Process × contact-suppression · pound the zone vs limit damage
  • Hitter Vulnerabilities
    Biggest pitch-trait strengths & weaknesses · vs league or vs own
  • AAA Hitters
    Triple-A bats · xwOBA · contact quality · discipline · frontier
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Position cohort

Pitching value vs. SP peers

Rank #105 of 165

Each bar is one SP, ordered left-to-right by Value (blended). Center dot is VORP; whiskers span V⁻ → V⁺. This player is highlighted in blue.

0+50+100+150Zach Eflin
Zach Eflin · #60
V⁻ —VORP -24V⁺ —
Zach Eflin

Zach Eflin

SP·BAL
Compare
Compare
BF
17
K %
41.2%
BB %
11.8%
xwOBA
.308
PTS
10
PPG
10.00
Career Seasons
YrGGSIPWLSVHLDERAFIPK%BB%K-BB%xwOBABABIPLOB%GB%PtsPPG
Proj191479.055014.354.1118.9%4.8%14.1%————1276.70
2026 MLB Percentiles

Pitching Profile

17 BF — below qualified cutoff. Percentiles vs. qualified pool (faded).

Arsenal
FB Velo
10
90.7
FB Spin
14
2141
2026
1
1
3.7
0
0
0
0
2.45
4.46
41.2%
11.8%
29.4%
.308
.429
108.7%
62.5%
10
10.00
2025151574.365005.695.4416.1%4.2%11.9%.328.30371.1%42.2%865.73
20243030175.31010003.593.7619.6%3.5%16.1%.303.28776.0%43.4%33011.00
20233333186.0169003.773.0626.3%3.4%22.9%.271.30372.6%50.4%42712.94
2022331695.755233.673.2420.7%4.8%15.9%.282.29069.1%45.6%2076.27
20211919110.747004.073.6522.4%3.6%18.8%.305.33073.8%43.5%1799.42
2020111059.042003.973.3028.6%6.1%22.5%.283.34474.1%48.4%13512.27
20193329168.71014004.224.7718.3%6.8%11.5%.310.29073.5%46.0%2487.52
20182524128.7118004.483.7822.4%6.7%15.7%.296.31368.2%42.9%2259.00
2017111164.315006.166.0412.5%4.3%8.2%.366.29769.3%45.6%292.64
Extension
47
6.46
Results
xwOBA
65
.308
Barrel %
0
25.0
Hard-Hit %
0
75.0
K %
100
41.2
BB %
8
11.8
Chase %
6
25.0
Whiff %
100
35.3
Command & Stuff

Pitching+

Expected run-value conceded per pitch against a rational hitter, standardized against the season. 100 = avg · 110 = 1 SD better.

Pitching+
98
≈ 41th pctl
Stuff+
101
if they swing
Command+
102
out-of-zone take RV
Strike quality+
94
RV of in-zone pitches
Crushable pitches
13.2%
19 meatballs
Putaway counts (0-2, 1-2)
0.043
RV per pitch · league 0.042
+0.001 worse than avg · 50 pitches
Lower RV = more wasted whiff chances when they choose not to put hitters away.
Hitter's counts (3-0, 3-1, 2-0)
0.067
RV per pitch · league 0.029
+0.037 worse than avg · 4 pitches
How often they groove get-me-overs vs. nibble safely.
Based on 144 pitches. RV = Statcast delta_run_exp; lower = better for the pitcher.
Pitch Arsenal
PitchUsageVeloSpinIVBHBExtWhiff%Zone%CSW%Chase%PutAway%xwOBA
ChangeupCH
25.7%87.91673-0.7+15.36.6538.5%47.4%26.3%40.0%33.3%0.231
CurveballCU
21.6%78.5

2026 Movement Profile (Induced Break)

MLB Avg.
6"12"18"24"24"24"24"1B ◀ MOVES TOWARD ▶ 3B▲MORERISE▼MOREDROPARMANGLE28°100 PITCHSAMPLE
CHCUSIFCFFST
Usage26%22%19%15%9%9%
MPH87.978.592.288.291.978.9
RHP Avg86.980.294.389.895.083.3
2459
-7.7
-12.7
6.38
50.0%
12.5%
31.3%
35.7%
14.3%
0.000
SinkerSI
18.9%92.22065+2.2+15.86.4950.0%71.4%50.0%0.0%40.0%0.332
CutterFC
14.9%88.22238+8.2-1.56.340.0%36.4%27.3%14.3%—0.699
4-Seam FastballFF
9.5%91.92141+11.7+8.76.460.0%42.9%0.0%0.0%0.0%—
SweeperST
9.5%78.92407-0.2-12.86.3333.3%28.6%28.6%20.0%33.3%0.529

2026 Swing-Out Snapshot

Commit at the decision point, then fast-forward 150ms. Where is each pitch when your bat crosses the zone? Two views of the same moment — catcher-facing and from the side.

Catcher View
horizontal × vertical
0.5′1′1.5′2′2.5′3′DECISIONPOINTFF · 17″FC · 20″SI · 21″ST · 26″CH · 25″CU · 27″arm side ◀ ▶ glove sidedrops ◀ ▶ rises
Side View
depth × vertical
1′2′3′4′5′6′-3′0′5′10′15′20′23′FF · 33″FC · 41″SI · 33″ST · 64″CH · 43″CU · 66″DECISION POINTPLATEfeet to plate
swing time150 ms

Each pitch is launched from a shared decision point (4.14′ height) and advanced using its own Statcast kinematics (release velocity + constant acceleration, so gravity, drag, and Magnus are all in the curve). RHP.

2026 Tunneling

Where pitches are when the hitter commits — and where they end up. Tighter cluster on the left = more deceptive arsenal.

At Decision
23 ft out · ~280ms before arrival
CHCUSIFCFFST-2′-1′0′1′2′1′2′3′4′1B ◀ catcher view ▶ 3B
At the Plate
Where they actually cross
CHCUSIFCFFST-2′-1′0′1′2′1′2′3′4′1B ◀ catcher view ▶ 3B
CHCUSIFCFFST

Decision point computed from Statcast kinematics (vx0/vy0/vz0, ax/ay/az) by projecting each pitch back to y = 23 ft. Coordinates in catcher’s view: 1B on the left, 3B on the right. RHP.