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  • Projections
    In-house Bayesian model · career prior + aging × stuff/discipline signals
  • Plate Discipline
    Decision+ · chase / passive cost · K% · BB%
  • Command & Stuff
    Pitching+ · Stuff+ · Command+ · meatball rate
  • Pitcher Stuff Lab
    In-zone whiff · xwOBAcon · tunnel · deception · count predictability
  • Stuff Model (diag)
    From-scratch XGBoost training runs, feature importance, pitcher grades
  • Expected Points
    Luck-neutral fantasy points · xSLG / xwOBA · ΔPts
  • Hitter Frontier
    Power × discipline tradeoff · Pareto-frontier hitters
  • Pitcher Frontier
    Process × contact-suppression · pound the zone vs limit damage
  • Hitter Vulnerabilities
    Biggest pitch-trait strengths & weaknesses · vs league or vs own
  • AAA Hitters
    Triple-A bats · xwOBA · contact quality · discipline · frontier
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Position cohort

Pitching value vs. SP peers

Rank #157 of 164

Each bar is one SP, ordered left-to-right by Value (blended). Center dot is VORP; whiskers span V⁻ → V⁺. This player is highlighted in blue.

-500+50+100+150Zack Littell
Zack Littell · #60
V⁻ —VORP -64V⁺ —
Zack Littell

Zack Littell

SP·WSN
Compare
Compare
BF
279
K %
14.0%
BB %
7.2%
xwOBA
.371
PTS
90
PPG
6.92
Career Seasons
YrGGSIPWLSVHLDERAFIPK%BB%K-BB%xwOBABABIPLOB%GB%PtsPPG
Proj161697.047004.884.7216.1%5.5%10.6%————1096.82
2026 MLB Percentiles

Pitching Profile

Arsenal
FB Velo
19
91.4
FB Spin
1
1991
Extension
2026
13
9
64.3
6
4
0
0
4.76
5.94
14.0%
7.2%
6.8%
.371
.243
69.2%
35.9%
90
6.92
20253434191.7109003.994.7917.1%4.2%12.9%.325.25779.0%40.7%3329.76
20243030159.7810003.663.8021.5%4.7%16.8%.327.31577.9%34.1%2809.33
2023311593.736004.133.7919.5%3.2%16.3%.322.29272.0%42.2%1504.84
202243048.033164.884.5420.5%6.8%13.7%.303.30873.5%43.1%831.93
202169268.340293.033.6325.0%9.5%15.5%.304.26977.0%48.5%2022.93
2020707.300008.5912.789.7%9.7%0.0%.543.318100.0%33.3%-4-0.57
201931037.361013.133.6621.9%6.2%15.7%.353.29478.7%39.0%1013.26
20188220.302006.205.8513.9%10.9%3.0%.365.31964.2%44.4%10.13
21
6.14
Results
xwOBA
7
.371
Barrel %
23
10.1
Hard-Hit %
18
44.7
K %
2
14.0
BB %
67
7.2
Chase %
10
26.3
Whiff %
2
14.6
Command & Stuff

Pitching+

Expected run-value conceded per pitch against a rational hitter, standardized against the season. 100 = avg · 110 = 1 SD better.

Pitching+
99
≈ 45th pctl
Stuff+
87
if they swing
Command+
110
out-of-zone take RV
Strike quality+
82
RV of in-zone pitches
Crushable pitches
16.3%
58 meatballs
Putaway counts (0-2, 1-2)
0.039
RV per pitch · league 0.042
-0.003 better than avg · 91 pitches
Lower RV = more wasted whiff chances when they choose not to put hitters away.
Hitter's counts (3-0, 3-1, 2-0)
0.091
RV per pitch · league 0.029
+0.061 worse than avg · 22 pitches
How often they groove get-me-overs vs. nibble safely.
Based on 356 pitches. RV = Statcast delta_run_exp; lower = better for the pitcher.
Pitch Arsenal
PitchUsageVeloSpinIVBHBExtWhiff%Zone%CSW%Chase%PutAway%xwOBA
SliderSL
27.6%87.02141+9.4-1.86.1316.7%58.0%33.3%20.6%44.4%0.507
4-Seam FastballFF
25.3%91.22013

2026 Movement Profile (Induced Break)

MLB Avg.
6"12"18"24"24"24"24"1B ◀ MOVES TOWARD ▶ 3B▲MORERISE▼MOREDROPARMANGLE38°100 PITCHSAMPLE
SLFFFSSIST
Usage28%25%18%17%12%
MPH87.091.283.490.778.9
RHP Avg86.795.086.794.383.3
+16.1
+6.9
6.20
7.7%
58.1%
20.3%
22.6%
16.7%
0.400
Split-FingerFS
18.1%83.41011+0.6+10.26.0625.9%43.4%20.8%30.0%25.0%0.262
SinkerSI
17.4%90.71923+11.1+15.06.213.6%54.9%19.6%30.4%0.0%0.611
SweeperST
11.6%78.92200-4.5-13.26.0229.4%44.1%26.5%36.8%6.7%0.343

2026 Swing-Out Snapshot

Commit at the decision point, then fast-forward 150ms. Where is each pitch when your bat crosses the zone? Two views of the same moment — catcher-facing and from the side.

Catcher View
horizontal × vertical
0.5′1′1.5′2′2.5′3′DECISIONPOINTFF · 18″SI · 18″SL · 19″ST · 23″FS · 24″arm side ◀ ▶ glove sidedrops ◀ ▶ rises
Side View
depth × vertical
1′2′3′4′5′6′-3′0′5′10′15′20′23′FF · 33″SI · 34″SL · 40″ST · 64″FS · 53″DECISION POINTPLATEfeet to plate
swing time150 ms

Each pitch is launched from a shared decision point (4.53′ height) and advanced using its own Statcast kinematics (release velocity + constant acceleration, so gravity, drag, and Magnus are all in the curve). RHP.

2026 Tunneling

Where pitches are when the hitter commits — and where they end up. Tighter cluster on the left = more deceptive arsenal.

At Decision
23 ft out · ~280ms before arrival
SLFFFSSIST-2′-1′0′1′2′1′2′3′4′1B ◀ catcher view ▶ 3B
At the Plate
Where they actually cross
SLFFFSSIST-2′-1′0′1′2′1′2′3′4′1B ◀ catcher view ▶ 3B
SLFFFSSIST

Decision point computed from Statcast kinematics (vx0/vy0/vz0, ax/ay/az) by projecting each pitch back to y = 23 ft. Coordinates in catcher’s view: 1B on the left, 3B on the right. RHP.