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  • Projections
    In-house Bayesian model · career prior + aging × stuff/discipline signals
  • Plate Discipline
    Decision+ · chase / passive cost · K% · BB%
  • Command & Stuff
    Pitching+ · Stuff+ · Command+ · meatball rate
  • Pitcher Stuff Lab
    In-zone whiff · xwOBAcon · tunnel · deception · count predictability
  • Stuff Model (diag)
    From-scratch XGBoost training runs, feature importance, pitcher grades
  • Expected Points
    Luck-neutral fantasy points · xSLG / xwOBA · ΔPts
  • Hitter Frontier
    Power × discipline tradeoff · Pareto-frontier hitters
  • Pitcher Frontier
    Process × contact-suppression · pound the zone vs limit damage
  • Hitter Vulnerabilities
    Biggest pitch-trait strengths & weaknesses · vs league or vs own
  • AAA Hitters
    Triple-A bats · xwOBA · contact quality · discipline · frontier
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Zack Short

Zack Short

SS·DET
Compare
Compare
BF
32
K %
3.1%
BB %
3.1%
xwOBA
.446
PTS
-2
PPG
-0.33
Career Seasons
YrGGSIPWLSVHLDERAFIPK%BB%K-BB%xwOBABABIPLOB%GB%PtsPPG
2023606.000006.003.773.1%3.1%0.0%.446.41471.4%17.2%-2-0.33
2023 MLB Percentiles

Pitching Profile

32 BF — below qualified cutoff. Percentiles vs. qualified pool (faded).

Arsenal
FB Velo
0
—
FB Spin
0
—
Extension
0
4.28
Results
xwOBA
0
.446
Barrel %
81
6.9
Hard-Hit %
0
55.2
K %
0
3.1
BB %
99
3.1
Chase %
100
35.8
Whiff %
0
4.0
Command & Stuff

Pitching+

Expected run-value conceded per pitch against a rational hitter, standardized against the season. 100 = avg · 110 = 1 SD better.

Pitching+
-68
≈ 1th pctl
Stuff+
-35
if they swing
Command+
96
out-of-zone take RV
Strike quality+
-49
RV of in-zone pitches
Crushable pitches
62.0%
62 meatballs
Putaway counts (0-2, 1-2)
0.075
RV per pitch · league 0.048
+0.028 worse than avg · 19 pitches
Lower RV = more wasted whiff chances when they choose not to put hitters away.
Hitter's counts (3-0, 3-1, 2-0)
0.086
RV per pitch · league 0.030
+0.055 worse than avg · 5 pitches
How often they groove get-me-overs vs. nibble safely.
Based on 100 pitches. RV = Statcast delta_run_exp; lower = better for the pitcher.
Pitch Arsenal
PitchUsageVeloSpinIVBHBExtWhiff%Zone%CSW%Chase%PutAway%xwOBA
OtherFA
73.0%68.11604+18.6+6.64.462.6%35.6%12.3%38.3%5.9%0.389
EephusEP
24.0%46.21069

2023 Movement Profile (Induced Break)

MLB Avg.
6"12"18"24"24"24"24"1B ◀ MOVES TOWARD ▶ 3B▲MORERISE▼MOREDROPARMANGLE51°100 PITCHSAMPLE
FAEPCS
Usage73%24%3%
MPH68.146.256.5
RHP Avg67.448.1—
+18.8
-2.3
3.76
10.0%
25.0%
20.8%
33.3%
0.0%
0.483
Slow CurveCS
3.0%56.51837-4.8-10.14.130.0%33.3%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.942

2023 Swing-Out Snapshot

Commit at the decision point, then fast-forward 150ms. Where is each pitch when your bat crosses the zone? Two views of the same moment — catcher-facing and from the side.

Catcher View
horizontal × vertical
0.5′1′1.5′2′2.5′3′DECISIONPOINTCS · 15″EP · 16″FA · 17″arm side ◀ ▶ glove sidedrops ◀ ▶ rises
Side View
depth × vertical
1′2′3′4′5′6′-3′0′5′10′15′20′23′CS · 119″EP · 145″FA · 90″DECISION POINTPLATEfeet to plate
swing time150 ms

Each pitch is launched from a shared decision point (5.74′ height) and advanced using its own Statcast kinematics (release velocity + constant acceleration, so gravity, drag, and Magnus are all in the curve). RHP.

2023 Tunneling

Where pitches are when the hitter commits — and where they end up. Tighter cluster on the left = more deceptive arsenal.

At Decision
23 ft out · ~280ms before arrival
FAEPCS-2′-1′0′1′2′1′2′3′4′1B ◀ catcher view ▶ 3B
At the Plate
Where they actually cross
FAEPCS-2′-1′0′1′2′1′2′3′4′1B ◀ catcher view ▶ 3B
FAEPCS

Decision point computed from Statcast kinematics (vx0/vy0/vz0, ax/ay/az) by projecting each pitch back to y = 23 ft. Coordinates in catcher’s view: 1B on the left, 3B on the right. RHP.