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  • Projections
    In-house Bayesian model · career prior + aging × stuff/discipline signals
  • Plate Discipline
    Decision+ · chase / passive cost · K% · BB%
  • Command & Stuff
    Pitching+ · Stuff+ · Command+ · meatball rate
  • Pitcher Stuff Lab
    In-zone whiff · xwOBAcon · tunnel · deception · count predictability
  • Stuff Model (diag)
    From-scratch XGBoost training runs, feature importance, pitcher grades
  • Expected Points
    Luck-neutral fantasy points · xSLG / xwOBA · ΔPts
  • Hitter Frontier
    Power × discipline tradeoff · Pareto-frontier hitters
  • Pitcher Frontier
    Process × contact-suppression · pound the zone vs limit damage
  • Hitter Vulnerabilities
    Biggest pitch-trait strengths & weaknesses · vs league or vs own
  • AAA Hitters
    Triple-A bats · xwOBA · contact quality · discipline · frontier
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Position cohort

Pitching value vs. SP peers

Each bar is one SP, ordered left-to-right by Value (blended). Center dot is VORP; whiskers span V⁻ → V⁺.

0+50+100+150
Lance McCullers Jr.

Lance McCullers Jr.

SP·HOU
Compare
Compare
BF
173
K %
24.9%
BB %
12.7%
xwOBA
.330
PTS
36
PPG
4.50
Career Seasons
YrGGSIPWLSVHLDERAFIPK%BB%K-BB%xwOBABABIPLOB%GB%PtsPPG
Proj17742.023004.444.2822.8%11.3%11.6%————623.65
2026 MLB Percentiles

Pitching Profile

Arsenal
FB Velo
8
90.3
FB Spin
33
2207
Extension
2026
8
8
39.3
2
3
0
0
6.86
5.06
24.9%
12.7%
12.2%
.330
.316
57.5%
44.8%
36
4.50
2025161355.325006.515.7422.3%14.2%8.1%.355.32566.7%47.6%322.00
2022111163.043003.144.0825.5%11.2%14.3%.299.27884.6%50.4%13912.64
20213030173.0145003.023.4727.0%11.1%15.9%.285.27379.9%56.9%43214.40
2020151574.745003.984.2524.6%8.8%15.8%.326.27968.2%60.3%15210.13
20183224141.7116023.683.3026.9%9.5%17.4%.301.27669.2%55.5%33010.31
20172927146.785104.363.1825.7%7.8%17.9%.292.32567.7%62.3%29010.00
2016141481.065003.222.9530.1%12.8%17.3%.291.38381.4%58.7%17112.21
20152423134.068003.293.3124.8%8.3%16.5%.304.28574.2%48.4%27811.58
10
6.00
Results
xwOBA
40
.330
Barrel %
46
8.6
Hard-Hit %
1
50.5
K %
73
24.9
BB %
2
12.7
Chase %
17
27.1
Whiff %
59
23.0
Command & Stuff

Pitching+

Expected run-value conceded per pitch against a rational hitter, standardized against the season. 100 = avg · 110 = 1 SD better.

Pitching+
97
≈ 37th pctl
Stuff+
115
if they swing
Command+
82
out-of-zone take RV
Strike quality+
116
RV of in-zone pitches
Crushable pitches
8.7%
22 meatballs
Putaway counts (0-2, 1-2)
0.056
RV per pitch · league 0.042
+0.014 worse than avg · 71 pitches
Lower RV = more wasted whiff chances when they choose not to put hitters away.
Hitter's counts (3-0, 3-1, 2-0)
-0.004
RV per pitch · league 0.029
-0.034 better than avg · 16 pitches
How often they groove get-me-overs vs. nibble safely.
Based on 254 pitches. RV = Statcast delta_run_exp; lower = better for the pitcher.
Pitch Arsenal
PitchUsageVeloSpinIVBHBExtWhiff%Zone%CSW%Chase%PutAway%xwOBA
CutterFC
31.5%89.42317+8.2-2.66.0521.6%50.0%23.8%27.5%23.5%0.347
SinkerSI
29.1%91.7

2026 Movement Profile (Induced Break)

MLB Avg.
6"12"18"24"24"24"24"1B ◀ MOVES TOWARD ▶ 3B▲MORERISE▼MOREDROPARMANGLE33°100 PITCHSAMPLE
FCSIKCSTCHFF
Usage31%29%13%12%11%4%
MPH89.491.781.282.885.692.4
RHP Avg89.894.383.083.386.995.0
2068
+6.4
+16.6
6.09
13.3%
62.2%
35.1%
21.4%
22.2%
0.213
Knuckle CurveKC
12.6%81.22782-10.2-13.96.1023.5%31.3%15.6%36.4%12.5%0.604
SweeperST
11.8%82.82685+6.4-16.06.0636.4%33.3%30.0%30.0%26.7%0.329
ChangeupCH
10.6%85.61809+2.1+16.45.9130.8%37.0%22.2%29.4%38.5%0.236
4-Seam FastballFF
4.3%92.42171+15.3+7.76.1520.0%0.0%9.1%45.5%0.0%0.928

2026 Swing-Out Snapshot

Commit at the decision point, then fast-forward 150ms. Where is each pitch when your bat crosses the zone? Two views of the same moment — catcher-facing and from the side.

Catcher View
horizontal × vertical
0.5′1′1.5′2′2.5′3′DECISIONPOINTFF · 14″FC · 17″SI · 18″ST · 20″CH · 21″KC · 25″arm side ◀ ▶ glove sidedrops ◀ ▶ rises
Side View
depth × vertical
1′2′3′4′5′6′-3′0′5′10′15′20′23′FF · 34″FC · 39″SI · 36″ST · 57″CH · 49″KC · 59″DECISION POINTPLATEfeet to plate
swing time150 ms

Each pitch is launched from a shared decision point (4.12′ height) and advanced using its own Statcast kinematics (release velocity + constant acceleration, so gravity, drag, and Magnus are all in the curve). RHP.

2026 Tunneling

Where pitches are when the hitter commits — and where they end up. Tighter cluster on the left = more deceptive arsenal.

At Decision
23 ft out · ~280ms before arrival
FCSIKCSTCHFF-2′-1′0′1′2′1′2′3′4′1B ◀ catcher view ▶ 3B
At the Plate
Where they actually cross
FCSIKCSTCHFF-2′-1′0′1′2′1′2′3′4′1B ◀ catcher view ▶ 3B
FCSIKCSTCHFF

Decision point computed from Statcast kinematics (vx0/vy0/vz0, ax/ay/az) by projecting each pitch back to y = 23 ft. Coordinates in catcher’s view: 1B on the left, 3B on the right. RHP.